There is speculation that US market would go down by another 10% to 20% immediately, This contradict with the report
A longstanding rule of thumb suggests that, if stocks are up in the three months before Election Day, the incumbent party usually wins. The method, using the S&P 500 (
.SPX) as a measure of the stock market, correctly predicted the outcome in 20 of the past 24 presidential elections going back to 1928, according to Leuthold Group
https://www.fidelity.com/insights/marke ... -president
US Stock Market before and After Election
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SAPPORO
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Re: US Stock Market before and After Election
If Trump wins even by a single electoral vote or loses bigly, the stocks should rally at least until the inauguration! But if Kamala wins with less than 4 states as buffer in electoral college meaning she does not get at least 306 EV like Biden did, T will create so much chaos, riots, lawsuits and even killing that stocks would tank not knowing who the next POTUS is until the inauguration day.
T is the biggest inside trader ever and so he will manipulate the markets according to his whims and fancies. The stocks would move sideways (good for day traders including Trump) all next year with the threat of tariffs and the possibility of corporate tax cuts. Once the tax cuts are in the bag in 2025, huge sell-the-news event would take place in 2026 tanking the market. There would be recession soon due to the excessive tariffs and T and his minions would start printing money recklessly again to counter the recession and reduce the interest rates next to nothing. It is what I am waiting for - mortgage rates should plummet, and I can refinance some of my properties and buy a few more distressed ones from the MAGA folks
If Kamala wins, no such drama since the markets and earnings would automatically adjust based on the expiring corporate tax cuts. Consumer spending should pick up that should keep the markets afloat. Remember, the worst scenario for companies is unpredictability more than expiring tax cuts. They were still making huge profits when the corporate tax rates were 35% before 2017, the reason being they don't pay next to nothing anyways using a lot of tax loopholes!
Obviously, not an expert opinion by any stretch of imagination.
T is the biggest inside trader ever and so he will manipulate the markets according to his whims and fancies. The stocks would move sideways (good for day traders including Trump) all next year with the threat of tariffs and the possibility of corporate tax cuts. Once the tax cuts are in the bag in 2025, huge sell-the-news event would take place in 2026 tanking the market. There would be recession soon due to the excessive tariffs and T and his minions would start printing money recklessly again to counter the recession and reduce the interest rates next to nothing. It is what I am waiting for - mortgage rates should plummet, and I can refinance some of my properties and buy a few more distressed ones from the MAGA folks
If Kamala wins, no such drama since the markets and earnings would automatically adjust based on the expiring corporate tax cuts. Consumer spending should pick up that should keep the markets afloat. Remember, the worst scenario for companies is unpredictability more than expiring tax cuts. They were still making huge profits when the corporate tax rates were 35% before 2017, the reason being they don't pay next to nothing anyways using a lot of tax loopholes!
Obviously, not an expert opinion by any stretch of imagination.
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Returning_Indian
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Re: US Stock Market before and After Election
Kamala wants to tax unrealised gains. This is certainly a dampener for investments. Going by her acumen, it doesn't give much confidence when she speaks about economic policies. Moreover, their policies of giving handouts to buy votes will only make matters worse in terms of need of increased taxation.
Trump rally on other hand will give a boost to the market with the hopes of lower taxes and less govt interference. Involvement of Musk will certainly bring the bloated govt down. Everyone hopes that he will repeat miracle of Twitter that now functions with 20% of its staff and delivers the same product/service.
Lot of fudging of data has happened in terms of employment numbers. We do not known the real strength of economy and what lies underneath the surface. It will all come to light after the elections. We will also know if fed will cut interest rates further. Right now interest rates have squeezed the life out of industries. I personally think it's best to stay out with cash. Warren Buffett has pulled lot of money out of market except for safe heavens. Obviously his company has better oversight of things than we do and there must be a reason they they are sitting on hundreds of billions in cash position.
Trump rally on other hand will give a boost to the market with the hopes of lower taxes and less govt interference. Involvement of Musk will certainly bring the bloated govt down. Everyone hopes that he will repeat miracle of Twitter that now functions with 20% of its staff and delivers the same product/service.
Lot of fudging of data has happened in terms of employment numbers. We do not known the real strength of economy and what lies underneath the surface. It will all come to light after the elections. We will also know if fed will cut interest rates further. Right now interest rates have squeezed the life out of industries. I personally think it's best to stay out with cash. Warren Buffett has pulled lot of money out of market except for safe heavens. Obviously his company has better oversight of things than we do and there must be a reason they they are sitting on hundreds of billions in cash position.
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SAPPORO
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Re: US Stock Market before and After Election
Kamala wants to tax unrealized gains for people with net worth more than 100 million - Most of us are not in that range! At least she has a plan to get the revenue to offset the spending she's planning for.Returning_Indian wrote: ↑Tue Oct 15, 2024 12:12 am Kamala wants to tax unrealised gains. This is certainly a dampener for investments. Going by her acumen, it doesn't give much confidence when she speaks about economic policies. Moreover, their policies of giving handouts to buy votes will only make matters worse in terms of need of increased taxation.
Trump rally on other hand will give a boost to the market with the hopes of lower taxes and less govt interference. Involvement of Musk will certainly bring the bloated govt down. Everyone hopes that he will repeat miracle of Twitter that now functions with 20% of its staff and delivers the same product/service.
Lot of fudging of data has happened in terms of employment numbers. We do not known the real strength of economy and what lies underneath the surface. It will all come to light after the elections. We will also know if fed will cut interest rates further. Right now interest rates have squeezed the life out of industries. I personally think it's best to stay out with cash. Warren Buffett has pulled lot of money out of market except for safe heavens. Obviously his company has better oversight of things than we do and there must be a reason they they are sitting on hundreds of billions in cash position.
I am not sure someone who has filed bankruptcy 6 different times and gawking sneakers, 100k gold watch, made-up crypto, NFT, DJT stock and what not and defrauding his cult members, has any financial acumen!
Trump is planning to spend more than Kamala to buy votes adding to the deficit -$4.1 trillion vs $1.2 trillion - https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/tr ... ysis-shows. For the first time in the US. Musk he has introduced Indian style of direct cash payments of $47 for each vote! LOL!
Musk has turned Twitter into a cesspool of conspiracy theories and its value has gone down by 80% since he took over - Thanks, but no thanks.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/20 ... 481287007/
He's kissing up to Trump in hopes of removing the EV rebates that would eliminate the competition so he could finally raise the price of his EVs after a long time. Consumers are the ones who are going to be left holding the bag
According to Trump and his cultists, only during his time employment and GDP reports were not hoax and otherwise in all of history they were all hoax. All the 5000+ companies in the market reporting their earnings are all lying that they're doing well. Even, WSJ economists think that that Trump plans will increase inflation, increase deficits and bad for the economy, https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/ ... s-0365588e Who cares since the supreme leader knows everything and he's always right! Now that inflation is under control, the Fed reserve would start cutting rates if there is a slowdown in the economy which does not seem to happen to Trump's dismay.
Having said all that, unless one is a billionaire looking to swoop in and buy distressed companies, stay invested in the market and not hold on to cash. The market will be ultimately up at least until 2026, no matter who wins due to the very fact that the elections are over.