RBee wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2024 5:55 pm
US is not ready for a woman president and probably won’t be in my life time as Trump will cross 300 from many polls including 538 poll.
Polls were wrong before, so I harbor a faintest hope that polls are wrong this time too !!
Oh, polls - All bets and polls off when a crazy person is on the ballot! Americans would even choose a half-dead person over a crazy one. The year was 2022, the inflation was more than 7%, the stock market had tanked 20%, the migrant crisis was bigger than it's now, the state was PA and Fetterman running for Dems had a stroke during his senate run but he beat Oz - a crazy one endorsed by who else but Trump. All the polls had him losing and he won by 5%. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/ ... -fetterman
Two pieces of soft evidence that the Orange is fizzing out.
After #CancelNetflix, Netflix has increased its bottom-line and the stock is up 30-40% and after "I hate Taylor Swift", the least expensive seat for her concert this weekend in Miami is close to a thousand dollars!
One piece of hard evidence is the new voter registrations with Dems roughly twice as many as Republicans with the unaffiliated remaining about the same, since 2022 (Dobbs). https://targetsmart.com/the-targetsmart ... dashboard/
It's so difficult to believe that Trump may actually win again. What has happened to America. I find Harris to be not charming but actually voting for Trump is unbelievable. What is wrong with people. Or maybe America is full of people who resent the current situation and want something absurd just out of spite. If I were a voter, I would just sit this election out. Maybe they should have an option of NOTA like in India. Or maybe have lettuce as a candidate and let's see how many people actually vote for lettuce.
Another point I noted was that federal govt pays nearly $700B in handouts. That too after borrowing money it doesn't have. States must pay lot in handouts too. Middle class has to pay this in taxes, higher borrowing costs for their loans. This is just absurd to pay for section of society to be a bum and mooch off others. Money to buy votes doesn't stop at handing out free rice, I suppose.
I personally don't expect Trump to win, despite the current polling indicators. I think polls are overcorrecting for Trump in '24 (opposite of '16 & '20). Also the betting sites have Trump at more than 60% chance of winning the election - which I think is preposterous. No election in recent years had such a wide betting spread, clearly they're being manipulated (even WSJ reported a story).
Also, Kamala Harris is pursuing a very risky strategy of courting white Republican sub-urban women at the risk of losing some liberal supporters. Going all-in with Liz Cheney ?! I don't know if it's such a good strategy but there are a lot of unknowns with how this voter block will end up voting.
I voted early yesterday and voted for Ds up and down the ballot including for the mosquito commissioner! Too bad the republican mosquito guy had better ideas, but I couldn't give a rat's (mosquito's?) behind unless and until their supreme leader at least stops glorifying the J6 insurrection.
Looking at the huge early voting numbers, the gender mix and the polls of the early voters, it's pretty clear that a lot of real republicans and/or a vast majority of independents are voting for Harris. I cannot believe a majority of Americans would be fired up vote for the old felon. IMO, Harris
might lose PA due to that being the state of the first assassination attempt and NC due to all the misinformation around the hurricane Helene. She should win all the other 5 swing states and should win it with 284-254.
No matter who wins, the great gender divide is happening and the word 'Tincel' (Trump Incel) would be added to the dictionary soon. It's highly competitive as it is, and male Trump voters would find it very hard to get even a date resulting in being a Tincel!
SAPPORO wrote: ↑Sat Oct 26, 2024 7:50 pm
Looking at the huge early voting numbers, the gender mix and the polls of the early voters, it's pretty clear that a lot of real republicans and/or a vast majority of independents are voting for Harris. I cannot believe a majority of Americans would be fired up vote for the old felon. IMO, Harris
might lose PA due to that being the state of the first assassination attempt and NC due to all the misinformation around the hurricane Helene. She should win all the other 5 swing states and should win it with 284-254.
No matter who wins, the great gender divide is happening and the word 'Tincel' (Trump Incel) would be added to the dictionary soon. It's highly competitive as it is, and male Trump voters would find it very hard to get even a date resulting in being a Tincel!
It's amazing how wide the gender gap is among Trump voters. It all comes down to how many suburban women voters end up voting in swing states.
Average American men want to go back to "Vance World", as I would like to call it. They want to go back to a time when they did not need a college degree, had a job in manufacturing and were the sole breadwinners whereas women were homemakers, obedient to their husbands and raised kids. At the same time, women have moved on and want to have none of it. It's quite interesting to see how rest of the world has moved on as well.
Last edited by SAPPORO on Sun Oct 27, 2024 10:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
as Trump will cross 300 from many polls including 538 poll.