US Elections 2024 - the most consequential election again!

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JINSAKAI
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Re: US Elections 2024 - the most consequential election again!

Post by JINSAKAI »

SAPPORO wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2024 9:59 am
Returning_Indian wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2024 7:57 am
nodegree wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2024 5:49 am Now that the election is over, the only thing we can speculate is how a 2nd Donald Trump Administration is going to be like. Are we back in to the chaos like his first administration or will this time be different?
I suspect it will even be more dramatic as there are no other election for him to worry about. Plus he has all three houses in control. But there are some positives. He will work with Putin to stop that war. US needs to get out of Ukraine. He will also pressurize Putin to stop support for Iran and hopefully bring an end to Gaza war. So that leaves his trade war with China. Expect tariffs to go up, inflation to go up but maybe jobs to come back. If he reduces deficit then bond demand to climb down and hopefully interest rates to come down, so maybe some uptick in housing. Energy prices to come down due to stopping of war and increase in US production of oil/gas. Maybe Elon to stop wasteful spending. 80% of bloated govt sounds about right. Handouts to stop. Etc etc.

Or maybe nothing will happen and Michelle Obama will contest in 2028 elections. But Americans have shocked the world with this election. Atleast I cannot believe it.
Another woman, never again, it may work even in Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka but not in the great USA!
Not sure if T will ever build the border wall in the south, but he sure has built the red wall in the Midwest. Unless Dems have a brash candidate like Trump, they have no hopes for the next dozen years at least. Get ready for Vance/Trump (Don Trump Jr) ticket in 2028! I know this since I live in FL that has not had a democratic governor for the last 25 years.
I would support only Queen Ivanka for USA in 2028 :)
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Re: US Elections 2024 - the most consequential election again!

Post by SAPPORO »

KH ran a good campaign at the last minute, but ultimately it was the inflation that sunk her. They should have kept focusing on the fact that Trump was also partly to blame for the inflation, but they stayed away from it since they ran the risk of labelling their supporters as freeloaders of the Trump largesse during covid. Moreover, she started aligning with the 'Cheney' brand name, in the hopes of peeling away an insignificant percentage of republicans but that translated to war mongering resulting in losing a lot of independents and some democrats.
One can't please everyone, and nice guys finish last!
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Re: US Elections 2024 - the most consequential election again!

Post by SAPPORO »

Financially speaking, I am fairly confident that T would wreck the economy with the threats of Tariffs and mass deportation and so I am licking my chops to gobble up some MAGA foreclosures with lower mortgage rates. Equities may also be on sale in 2026.

Personally speaking, six-week abortion was not lifted in Florida. Women can be prosecuted even for a miscarriage even before they know they're pregnant. FL went to Trump by 13%. I feel uneasy surrounded by millions of MAGA and my daughter or future DIL may never visit us if we continue to live here. One option is to wait to see how it goes and move back up northeast to stay in a safe cocoon cutting off all contacts with the rest of the country. Another piece of good news is that T's "no conflicts for 4 years" would immensely benefit my DS who is joining the US Airforce. Things might start blowing up after he leaves office like the last time but by that time my DS would be out of the military.
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Re: US Elections 2024 - the most consequential election again!

Post by SAPPORO »

JINSAKAI wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2024 10:07 am
SAPPORO wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2024 9:59 am
Returning_Indian wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2024 7:57 am
I suspect it will even be more dramatic as there are no other election for him to worry about. Plus he has all three houses in control. But there are some positives. He will work with Putin to stop that war. US needs to get out of Ukraine. He will also pressurize Putin to stop support for Iran and hopefully bring an end to Gaza war. So that leaves his trade war with China. Expect tariffs to go up, inflation to go up but maybe jobs to come back. If he reduces deficit then bond demand to climb down and hopefully interest rates to come down, so maybe some uptick in housing. Energy prices to come down due to stopping of war and increase in US production of oil/gas. Maybe Elon to stop wasteful spending. 80% of bloated govt sounds about right. Handouts to stop. Etc etc.

Or maybe nothing will happen and Michelle Obama will contest in 2028 elections. But Americans have shocked the world with this election. Atleast I cannot believe it.
Another woman, never again, it may work even in Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka but not in the great USA!
Not sure if T will ever build the border wall in the south, but he sure has built the red wall in the Midwest. Unless Dems have a brash candidate like Trump, they have no hopes for the next dozen years at least. Get ready for Vance/Trump (Don Trump Jr) ticket in 2028! I know this since I live in FL that has not had a democratic governor for the last 25 years.
I would support only Queen Ivanka for USA in 2028 :)
She's good with business along with her husband. If everyone in the family gets into politics, there will be no one left to take advantage of it in their businesses.
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Re: US Elections 2024 - the most consequential election again!

Post by old-spice2 »

Nice victory for T with win in Senate and hopefully in HoR. Ukraine war will end, Russian oil and gas will flow back to EU lowering CoL and inflation. Stock market is already cheering with Dow shooting up 1000 points. Good times ahead. For the Dem supporters and whining losers, wait till 2028. Or this may be the last election in USA.
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Re: US Elections 2024 - the most consequential election again!

Post by SAPPORO »

old-spice2 wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2024 11:10 am Nice victory for T with win in Senate and hopefully in HoR. Ukraine war will end, Russian oil and gas will flow back to EU lowering CoL and inflation. Stock market is already cheering with Dow shooting up 1000 points. Good times ahead. For the Dem supporters and whining losers, wait till 2028. Or this may be the last election in USA.
You have a point there! Why waste time and resources on this charade every 4 years? SCOTUS has already made T the king, I am all for making this the last elections in the USA, seriously.
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Re: US Elections 2024 - the most consequential election again!

Post by SAPPORO »

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 025897.cms
Good for USCs with adult kids not having to compete with H1b workers and bad for the current H1B workers and the Indian IT industry overall.
Extremely bad for the neighborhood that I live in with 50% of the houses owned by H1B visa holders!
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Re: US Elections 2024 - the most consequential election again!

Post by Returning_Indian »

SAPPORO wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2024 1:01 pm https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 025897.cms
Good for USCs with adult kids not having to compete with H1b workers and bad for the current H1B workers and the Indian IT industry overall.
Extremely bad for the neighborhood that I live in with 50% of the houses owned by H1B visa holders!
Indian IT industry stocks are up significantly after election. It is expected that dollar will be stronger and IT services will become cheaper. IT labor is sent primarily by L1 visa which is hardly ever a focus in elections. For Indian IT industry all of this is better news than Harris winning. When it comes to offshoring of services or manufacturing there is only so much any party can do. Corporate America rules. There might be some drama around tariffs and India will also play along by reducing tariffs on Harley or maybe Tesla will be given special concession to appease to Trump.

In all his antiques about illegal immigration and bringing jobs back, I do not believe anything will happen. US employers need illegals and foreign offshoring. This will continue unabated. Infact after wuhan virus, sending jobs remote is even easier. Even in my industry US is sending jobs to Mexico and India in huge numbers while people in US are laid off in big numbers as well. Before wuhan pandemic it was never possible to send jobs offshore for my line of work and now entire departments are sent.
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Re: US Elections 2024 - the most consequential election again!

Post by nodegree »

My personal takeaways after this election cycle

Some political points

- Dems really screwed up with Gaza. They should've just come out against the Genocide right away and not wait for the election. It just made them look weak. Forget all the arguments that say 'well GOP would do the same' - Dems are in power, so it's on them to act. They cannot claim to be morally better than Trump/Republicans somehow when they openly aid and abet a textbook genocide.

- KH wouldn't even publicly take a stand whether she'll keep Lina Khan as FTC chair if elected. If she's unable to take a stand or comment on her own administration's appointee while she is in power, then she's effectively a blackbox and no one really knows what her really policies are.

- The Obama doctrine (center to right fiscal policies, quasi neocon foreign policy mixed with highly visible and left leaning social policies) is done. They need to embrace populism. Bring more Bernie/Warren types into the fold and keep Obama/Clinton/West Wing Boys far away from any real policy making. It's really telling that people who make more than $100k overwhelmingly voted for KH but people that earn less than that overwhelmingly voted for Trump.

- Dems should go back to their roots of playing the game tough & hardball like FDR/LBJ instead of compromising on every legislative agenda for the sake of "reach across the aisle" and "when they go low, you go high" platitudes. They're losing more blue collar voters than any potential gains among centrist republicans.

- Neocons are radioactive. Ditch all the neocons like David Frum, Kristol, Cheney etc that infiltrated into the party apparatus.

- Biden should've ditched Powell, instead of extending his term. He was too late to raise rates and then too late to cut them. High interest rates, did take a huge toll on many families.

- Dems/Media should stop criticizing Trump on his personal shortcomings and stick to only policy related criticisms. Of course people already know he's a racist & a conman but they still put him in power. No use beating a dead horse.

- MAGA is here to stay, even after Trump.

- Republican strategy of side stepping abortion and have every state have their own ballot initiatives helped them stem the potential losses in swing states. Many midwest red states voted to legalize abortion while the south mostly did not. I think Democrats need to move past abortion in the future.

Personal Note

- Going forward, I'll stop following the news, political podcasts and ignore all the rage bait. I don't care what Trump does and there's nothing really I can do to stop them. I'll vote D in midterms and then again in 2028 but that's about it. Until then, I'll be tuning out completely. It's funny how my own initial thoughts looked remarkably prescient (barely influenced by media, mostly original) but later on, my views changed thanks to the overwhelming narrative spun by the media.
nodegree wrote: Wed Jul 17, 2024 12:45 pm
SAPPORO wrote: Tue Jul 16, 2024 3:01 pm
nodegree wrote: Mon Jul 15, 2024 3:29 pm JD Vance is the VP pick for Trump, who wants to break up big tech and is quite popular with Independents and even some Democrats. I'm sure a lot of corporate donors are happy to get rid of him from the Senate where he's actually doing some damage to become the VP where he has zero power.

I think at this point Trump is all set to get back into the White House.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... story.html
There is no way in hell that any democrat would support JD Vance who thinks rape and incest are "inconvenient" and he is a big conspiracy theorist and worse than Trump in many ways. MAGA dislikes him too for his 2016 "never trump" leanings, wrong pick by Trump!
On a side note, I wonder what they teach in these Ivy league law schools! The only saving grace is that he used it to good effect to find a desi bride!
Teamsters president spoke for the first time at a RNC after 121 years of its founding. If you had told me last month a Pro-Union Labor group president would headline at an RNC event, I would've thought you were delusional. On top of it the Teamsters president slammed Chamber of Commerce (a key GOP backer) and called for breaking up Amazon and curtailing Walmart. JD Vance (anti-trust, breaking up corporate power), Teamsters "non-endorsement" at RNC and giving people like Hawley key policy portfolios - Trump is going directly after the Bernie voter (not the urban professionals with the "Co-exist" stickers on their cars) but rural working class Bernie voter.

This is all making Reagan types in the GOP squirm and the odds of Trump passing any significant pro-worker legislation if elected is probably close to zero but you cannot deny the political shift that's happening right before our eyes.
After 2 months of following political news closely and drinking the kool-aid...
nodegree wrote: Fri Sep 20, 2024 12:38 am It's still very early but I think Trump fever is slowly breaking (like Pete Buttigieg framed it). KH should have worked out something with the Teamsters to get their endorsement but oh well.

It's all down to turn out now. Dog whistles vs Abortion!
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