The Great Job Wipeout: AI Set to Crush 300M Careers - report from Goldman Sacks

[old-spice2]

I don’t think AI will replace any Software Engineering job in near future, maybe junior / mid level Software Engineers may be more productive with of the Code Assistant tools, and those paying almost half a mill should be safe

whenever someone says more productive, I always read it as a job loss. I think we are underestimating the number of new jobs that will not be created because of these tools already. If software engineer can improve their efficiency by 50% then that's reduction of half the workforce directly. That's millions of people.

Internet drastically improved communication in last two decades. It resulted in lot more production and consumption and gdp increased dramatically worldwide. It resulted in improvement in quality of life for billions. Will AI result in any such revolution?

Every tech improvement need not lead to better jobs. Back in 1920s there were thousands of buggy (horse/coach) drivers who used to ply them as cabs in NYC. Then cars took over, many of those buggy drivers learned car driving and became taxi drivers. Then yellow cabs were replaced with Uber. No problem, cab drivers started using their vehicle as Uber. With autonomous driving, these cab drivers will be jobless, cannot switch to anything. Cannot learn Java/Python and work for Wymo/Google. Pichai is already laying off MS level folks there.

If millions lose their jobs due to AI/automation, who will buy the products made by these modern tech? There will be a severe depression. Companies will then decide to ditch AI/automation and go back to DB2/CICS/Cobol. People like me can rejoin the workforce as Gen-Z don't know a stuff about these wonderful technologies of mainframes.

[desi4ever]

I don’t think AI will replace any Software Engineering job in near future, maybe junior / mid level Software Engineers may be more productive with of the Code Assistant tools, and those paying almost half a mill should be safe

whenever someone says more productive, I always read it as a job loss. I think we are underestimating the number of new jobs that will not be created because of these tools already. If software engineer can improve their efficiency by 50% then that's reduction of half the workforce directly. That's millions of people.

Internet drastically improved communication in last two decades. It resulted in lot more production and consumption and gdp increased dramatically worldwide. It resulted in improvement in quality of life for billions. Will AI result in any such revolution?

Every tech improvement need not lead to better jobs. Back in 1920s there were thousands of buggy (horse/coach) drivers who used to ply them as cabs in NYC. Then cars took over, many of those buggy drivers learned car driving and became taxi drivers. Then yellow cabs were replaced with Uber. No problem, cab drivers started using their vehicle as Uber. With autonomous driving, these cab drivers will be jobless, cannot switch to anything. Cannot learn Java/Python and work for Wymo/Google. Pichai is already laying off MS level folks there.

If millions lose their jobs due to AI/automation, who will buy the products made by these modern tech? There will be a severe depression. Companies will then decide to ditch AI/automation and go back to DB2/CICS/Cobol. People like me can rejoin the workforce as Gen-Z don't know a stuff about these wonderful technlogies of mainframes.

You kind of found a solution to the problem of AI taking aways jobs. I think AI will do what computers were in the 90s. The loan officer will still be there , instead of greeting you and clicking a few buttons based on tribal knowledge, he/she will use AI based tools to determine your credit worthiness and ask you to sign the dotted line or politely ask you to leave.

Regarding drivers losing jobs to autonomous driving ,those unemployed drivers will probably get hired to operate something else . America cannot/will not let its citizens unemployed for a long time for the exact reasons you mention - they need people with money to purchase stuff they put in the market