US Stock Market

[SAPPORO]

May be good time to grab more RSUs for lucky ones

IMO, the best time is a year from now when the S&P should be down by 20-25% and tech stocks should be down by 30-40%!

[SAPPORO]

Powell hints that we're entering a new era of monetary policy and the markets don't like it, even one bit. S&P closed -3%.

Start of something big?

I am pretty sure Donny cannot match the 11.5% rally in S&P 500 from election day to end of the year, when he was defeated. Let's wait and see
if he matches the 4.6% rally in 2016 when he won or at least breaks even!
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/04/what-th ... story.html

[SAPPORO]

Powell hints that we're entering a new era of monetary policy and the markets don't like it, even one bit. S&P closed -3%.

Start of something big?

I am pretty sure Donny cannot match the 11.5% rally in S&P 500 from election day to end of the year, when he was defeated. Let's wait and see
if he matches the 4.6% rally in 2016 when he won or at least breaks even!
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/04/what-th ... story.html

Despite all the hype, Trump ended up with less than 2% rise in S&P 500. Considering that for the entire year, it was +24%, the increase has slowed down considerably. Corporations need stability and predictability more than the tax cuts which doesn't even impact them since they anyway pay very low percentage in taxes. So, it's going to be a wild ride next year!

Tesla and Bitcoin rallied on speculation and brought back down a little bit after profit-taking. A "day of reckoning" tomorrow for TSLA when the Q4 delivery numbers come out. It could go back to 450 or go down to 350!

[Returning_Indian]

PE ratios are way too high now to invest and hope market goes up. Ofcourse with euphoria everything is possible. With the amount of free money that was flooded during wuhan virus, valuations were obviously going to skyrocket with the demand. Real challenge will be going forward as money is being dried up, people are now out of free money, govt borrowing is competing with investment, global factors are not helping, two unnecessary wars etc etc. Trump will certainly face lot of challenges going forward. Housing market has started to crack especially in south but over time it is bound to spread to other states.

Overall, I think things will stay like this until good paying jobs come back. For now the employment situation is not good in many sectors especially for jobs that pay decent.

[old-spice2]

PE ratios are way too high now to invest and hope market goes up. Ofcourse with euphoria everything is possible. With the amount of free money that was flooded during wuhan virus, valuations were obviously going to skyrocket with the demand. Real challenge will be going forward as money is being dried up, people are now out of free money, govt borrowing is competing with investment, global factors are not helping, two unnecessary wars etc etc. Trump will certainly face lot of challenges going forward. Housing market has started to crack especially in south but over time it is bound to spread to other states.

Overall, I think things will stay like this until good paying jobs come back. For now the employment situation is not good in many sectors especially for jobs that pay decent.

Can we really assume stock market return will keep growing globally at 8-9% when many countries are facing population decline? SK, Japan, China, Italy, Greece and many other EU countries are facing dangerous decline in pop as people are not getting married or having babies due to high CoL and childcare expenses. Many young adults I talked to say they do not want to bring in a child in this world with Trump, Wokes and affordability crisis. Refugees are making up for the loss in some EU countries but most of them are from Muslim nations who cause problems. They are mostly less educated and become a liabilty on the state.

I heard in UK many from Islamic nations produce babies so they can get free aid from the govt plus housing. They are taking away resources from other Brits who have worked hard and paid taxes. There is a general resentment towards this. Stock market and economy will grow if you have more consumers to buy iPhones and BMWs.

Only India has increasing pop that is educated and skilled. Nigeria and Pakistan has more pop but we all know the background of those nations. My crystal ball says we cannot assume 8% return on US or any stock market in the next 20-50 years. Buy gold and RE, you will be safe from the eventual crash.

https://greekreporter.com/2025/01/02/gr ... -new-data/

[SAPPORO]

PE ratios are way too high now to invest and hope market goes up. Ofcourse with euphoria everything is possible. With the amount of free money that was flooded during wuhan virus, valuations were obviously going to skyrocket with the demand. Real challenge will be going forward as money is being dried up, people are now out of free money, govt borrowing is competing with investment, global factors are not helping, two unnecessary wars etc etc. Trump will certainly face lot of challenges going forward. Housing market has started to crack especially in south but over time it is bound to spread to other states.

Overall, I think things will stay like this until good paying jobs come back. For now the employment situation is not good in many sectors especially for jobs that pay decent.

Can we really assume stock market return will keep growing globally at 8-9% when many countries are facing population decline? SK, Japan, China, Italy, Greece and many other EU countries are facing dangerous decline in pop as people are not getting married or having babies due to high CoL and childcare expenses. Many young adults I talked to say they do not want to bring in a child in this world with Trump, Wokes and affordability crisis. Refugees are making up for the loss in some EU countries but most of them are from Muslim nations who cause problems. They are mostly less educated and become a liabilty on the state.

I heard in UK many from Islamic nations produce babies so they can get free aid from the govt plus housing. They are taking away resources from other Brits who have worked hard and paid taxes. There is a general resentment towards this. Stock market and economy will grow if you have more consumers to buy iPhones and BMWs.

Only India has increasing pop that is educated and skilled. Nigeria and Pakistan has more pop but we all know the background of those nations. My crystal ball says we cannot assume 8% return on US or any stock market in the next 20-50 years. Buy gold and RE, you will be safe from the eventual crash.

https://greekreporter.com/2025/01/02/gr ... -new-data/

When west sneezes, India catches cold! Whatever happens in the west is quickly copied by Indians. I was shocked to see an episode on DINK (Double Income No Kids) on Neeya Naana on Vijay TV. I understand it's a personal choice but shocked to see it has quickly caught on even in conservative Tamil Nadu. https://www.reddit.com/r/PlipPlip/comme ... e_on_dink/

[old-spice2]

When west sneezes, India catches cold! Whatever happens in the west is quickly copied by Indians. I was shocked to see an episode on DINK (Double Income No Kids) on Neeya Naana on Vijay TV. I understand it's a personal choice but shocked to see it has quickly caught on even in conservative Tamil Nadu. https://www.reddit.com/r/PlipPlip/comme ... e_on_dink/

I only said India's pop is growing alongwith Nigeria/Pak, elsewhere it is falling. It does not mean Indian economy will do good and rest will fail. It will be a global slowdown/recession as pop shrink, market size will shrink. There will be fewer buyers for all consumer goods/services. It will reduce earning and thus the stock price.

We cannot be certain going forward we will get 8-9% return on stocks. It may happen in 30-50 years when this pop shrinkage will start hitting the economies. Japan/SK is expected to be half the current pop by 2100. China will be around 600M by 2100. Putin is struggling to beat Ukraine due to labor shortage in Russia. He has to import soldiers from NK.

[SAPPORO]

Step aside, Investments, let the full-scale trading begin! The stock futures are down about 2% now with all the tariffs tit-for-tat and I am pretty sure it's going to swing up and down in a broad range tomorrow and for the next 4 years.

[nodegree]

NVDA took a beating. Should be interesting to see if the rest of the market holds or if it will go down the drain. Animal Spirits and all.

[JINSAKAI]

NVDA took a beating. Should be interesting to see if the rest of the market holds or if it will go down the drain. Animal Spirits and all.

All it took was just one AI app Deepseek, my portfolio was down by 4.35 %