R2I Club Member Hangout

wd40 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2024 1:48 am Coincidently found this on twitter today:

Diploma mills are nothing new. And no, no one is scamming these students. They know fully well why they are there.

From someone who has been there and done that.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/bhattkap ... er_desktop

"The first company I worked for had a simple adage, 'Do the Math'

Let's do the math on the H1B odds of an Indian student going for their masters in 2024 vs me who went in 2015 and how the odds have changed drastically

First refer to the attached chart because a picture is worth a thousand words and I am too lazy to write even an extra word just to please the social media algorithmic Gods

As you can see, prior to 2015, H1B lottery was a non-event as it was hardly required but that changed post 2015, still nothing to fret for me as of now

On STEM OPT, I got 3 shots at the H1B golden lottery where once you win the lottery allegedly you see unicorns flying out of the sky

For simplicity, let's average out the total H1B applications as 200k and the H1B cap is 85k

The probability that my H1B does not get picked in any of the 3 years was
((200k - 85k)/200k)^3 = ~0.19 i.e. 19%

So, I had a 20% chance of returning to India after my STEM OPT expires

Honestly, these are good odds to bet on, so all the folks pre 2020 had good odds of making it in the US on H1B

But, let's talk about someone in 2024+

The number of applications have zoomed from 200k to ~400k in just 4 years post pandemic

So, what are the odds of getting your H1B picked in 2024+ with the H1B cap fixed at 85k

Sometimes I wonder, which will move first, the H1B cap or Mt Everest, but I digress!

Let's calculate the odds shall we
((400k-85k)/400k)^3 = ~0.49 i.e. 49%

Practically, a coin toss between staying in the US or returning to India and these odds are going to decrease with every passing year as the number of applications keeps going up

Anyone going to the US in 2024+ for their masters is basically flipping a coin at the airport and wishing for it to land in a way that they can stay on the US land, and if the toss lands the other way, they will be back in the other direction to their original land

So choose wisely, oh traveler!"

Yeah coming to US for masters on your own money and r2i does not make financial sense. It is getting harder to obtain H1B--> GC and with Trump in WH it will get more difficult.

What is the current wait time to get GC for someone who gets H1B first time in 2024? I see some report saying 100+ years. Is it really taking this long?

Gullible poorly educated folks are T's main voting block, and the US is the only country in the world wherein most parents gloat about their past and are not keen on college education for their children - so much for Make America Great Again! It's not in T's (GOP) interest to have college educated voters but the universities need students to stay afloat. So, T would dangle the carrot of immediate GC for grad students from abroad, until he converts the universities to internment camps for the illegals waiting to be deported.

i read a cool quote on whatssapp uni.

"Trump got elected because, the people making $750+/hr managed to convince the people making $25/hr that the real problem in America is the people making $7.50 or less."

old-spice2 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 6:12 am Yeah coming to US for masters on your own money and r2i does not make financial sense. It is getting harder to obtain H1B--> GC and with Trump in WH it will get more difficult.

What is the current wait time to get GC for someone who gets H1B first time in 2024? I see some report saying 100+ years. Is it really taking this long?

100 years ? Now I know why Indians (most) believe in reincarnation

SAPPORO wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 7:59 am Gullible poorly educated folks are T's main voting block, and the US is the only country in the world wherein most parents gloat about their past and are not keen on college education for their children - so much for Make America Great Again! It's not in T's (GOP) interest to have college educated voters but the universities need students to stay afloat. So, T would dangle the carrot of immediate GC for grad students from abroad, until he converts the universities to internment camps for the illegals waiting to be deported.

Yes if you come through MS route you can get immediate GC but bodyshopping by Infy/TCS will be curtailed. Even there if too may curry smelling Indians fill up MS classrooms, MAGA crowd will get agitated.

BTW let us not convert this thread to US election. My last post on this topic here.

SAPPORO wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 7:59 am So, T would dangle the carrot of immediate GC for grad students from abroad,

I have heard this line from Romney in 2012 too. Nothing happened when Rs took all 3 chambers after that. Heard it from Dems, nothing happened when Ds took all 3 chambers. Besides, Trump team immediately rolled back on this brain fart.

Even if they give immediate GC to grad students, they cannot remove country cap. Last time they tried, Rick Scott (A MAGA hardcore senator) blocked it to protect Cuban immigrant interests.

In the absence of country cap removals, India's wait time will remain 100+ years.

Add to all of this the situation in Canada. Canadians are calling for country caps now and Americans are taking Canada as a warning sign about what happens in the absence of country caps.

old-spice2 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 6:12 am

What is the current wait time to get GC for someone who gets H1B first time in 2024? I see some report saying 100+ years. Is it really taking this long?

Yes it is. Simply divide the number of Indians in line by the number of GCs given to Indians annually, you get a number that is 100+

r2somewhere wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 10:40 am

SAPPORO wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 7:59 am So, T would dangle the carrot of immediate GC for grad students from abroad,

I have heard this line from Romney in 2012 too. Nothing happened when Rs took all 3 chambers after that. Heard it from Dems, nothing happened when Ds took all 3 chambers. Besides, Trump team immediately rolled back on this brain fart.

Even if they give immediate GC to grad students, they cannot remove country cap. Last time they tried, Rick Scott (A MAGA hardcore senator) blocked it to protect Cuban immigrant interests.

In the absence of country cap removals, India's wait time will remain 100+ years.

Add to all of this the situation in Canada. Canadians are calling for country caps now and Americans are taking Canada as a warning sign about what happens in the absence of country caps.

Just a simple majority in the senate won't be enough - you need filibuster-proof majority of 60. 90% of the GOP senators come from the states where no one sees foreigners other than at the Chinese take-outs and they could care rat's behind about GCs to Indians. in fact, EAGLE act in 2022 that was going to clear the GC backlog in 10 years was DOA since there was no support from GOP. The per-country cap was removed in some form back in 2000 under AC21 and that's how I got my GC, but those days were not as partisan as after a black guy occupied the white house!